By Matt Dunn

A NIGHTMARE scenario of erosion and flooding of South Gippsland beaches and coastal properties has been predicted in a new report.
Inverloch, Venus Bay, Kilcunda, San Remo, Cape Paterson, Tarwin Lower, Walkerville, Waratah Bay, Sandy Point and Wilsons Promontory are among the coastal areas under threat, with residential properties at risk.

The predictions are part of the Gippsland Coastal Board’s Climate change, sea level rise and coastal subsidence along the Gippland Coast report.
Estimates of coastal changes are based on a “conservative” 0.8m rise in sea levels by the end of the century.

“Many towns in this section are vulnerable to coastal erosion, which could result in losses of residential and commercial property, services and roads,” the report said.

“There are significant threats to the immediate foreshore areas at Inverloch, Venus Bay, Walkerville, and Waratah Bay due to their proximity to the erodible coast and/or their low elevation.”

Chair of the Gippsland Coastal Board, Duncan Malcolm said the predicted rise was “conservative but responsible” and in line with other estimates.
“There are various higher estimates, with some scientists predicting rises of 1.2m. The message we need to get out is let’s start planning now and see what the implications are,” he said.

A sea-level rise of 1.2 metres or higher would see more severe inundation in a shorter time frame.

But even under the 0.8m prediction, cemeteries, caravan parks, rail trails, bridges, lifesaving clubs, camping grounds, wetlands and heritage sites may be inundated.

The report lists a raft of risks to the region if the predictions come to pass.

Aside from infrastructure, the erosion and inundation will affect people in many different ways, with everyone from rock fishermen to lawn bowlers at risk.

The water levels will change the beach profile at Cape Paterson, alter the tide currents at San Remo, cause stormwater breakdown and sewer pump flooding at Inverloch, erode the lime kilns at Walkerville, storm surge inundation at Waratah Bay and erosion of cultural heritage sites.

CSIRO climate change scientist John Church said the rise in “the global averaged level” could be higher along the Gippsland coast than other parts of Australia.

“This is not well understood, but many models suggest a slightly larger rise off the east coast of Australia, and presumably also the Gippsland area,” he said.

“The IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) projections are for an 18 to 79 cm global averaged rise between 1990 and 2095, including an allowance for an inadequately modeled ice sheet component. IPCC also states that the rise could be larger but they could not quantify this because of our inadequate understanding of ice sheet contributions.”

The issue will prove to be a headache for the South Gippsland Shire and Bass Coast Shire councils, who will need to be mindful of developments in the region.

South Gippsland Shire Council manager of planning and environment, Chris Wightman said council was “taking the issue very seriously”.
“The report is basically up for discussion, but it doesn’t propose solutions,” he said.

“Someone from the Gippsland Coastal Board will brief council and we’ll continue to liaise with the board about the implications of climate change.
“The report is the first step in starting to prepare and we’ll be looking very carefully into the matter.”
Mr Wightman said a council officer would also attend a seminar in September offered by the board.
Mr Wightman could not yet predict what council’s response to the problem would be.

Councils will be mindful of the recent Honeysuckles debacle.
The Wellington Shire Council considered a 12 month ban on development at the Honeysuckles, near Ninety Mile Beach, raising the ire of locals, who are planning a class action. The group claims the council’s action has irreparably damaged property values in the seaside hamlet.

The Wellington Shire Council has now chosen to take a wait-and-see approach and will seek guidance from the State Government before it acts again.
It is hoping to band together with other councils before it chooses its next response.

Bass Coast Council environment manager Paul Smith said it would be “a courageous coastal engineer” who could plan a response to the predictions.
“It’s a whole new set of problems. There are just so many variables,” he said.
Mr Smith said much of council’s response would be about educating builders, surveyors and the general public about the risk posed through a changed environment.